NFL RECAP - AFC PICKS

As promised, the AFC recap of my preseason picks.

AFC EAST

The pick: NEW ENGLAND
The winner: NEW ENGLAND

What I got right: "While Miami has a nice squad...Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them...even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done."

What I got wrong: "The Jets have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league."

Grade: A-
I got the pick right, predicted that Culpepper would flop and Miami wasn't the chic pick to win the division that everyone seemed to think they were. The Jets, like New Orleans in the NFC, were a big surprise so I won't penalize myself too much for not predicting their wildcard run.

AFC NORTH

The pick: PITTSBURGH
The winner: BALTIMORE

What I got right: "Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh...but will they live up to the high expectations? In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly."

What I got wrong: "I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference...The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title."

Grade: D-
In my defense I did note that I could see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs entirely. Though I somehow stupidly still picked them to win the division. I had Cincy pegged for a wildcard slot so that wasn't too far off (more on that below). But I get the D because I didn't see the 13-3 season from Baltimore. I was thinking more along the lines of 9-7 and missing out on the last wildcard.

AFC SOUTH

The pick: INDIANAPOLIS
The winner: INDIANAPOLIS

What I got right: "The Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. In Houston...all the talk is about why they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. This team is...not ready for primetime."

What I got wrong: "In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold."

Grade: A-
Much like the AFC EAST, I got the pick right, but like the Jets I didn't see the Titans surprise season coming. Granted they didn't get into the playoffs, but 8-8 was a breakout year for them considering the low expectations. Vince Young proved he's a winner at the pro level as well. Unlike in Tennessee, 8-8 in Jax was a disappointment. I thought they would nab a wildcard spot, but they were more unsettled at QB than I expected and they couldn't get it done on the road this year (2-6).

AFC WEST

The pick: DENVER
The winner: SAN DIEGO

What I got right: "The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad...San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth...KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders...this team will stink."

What I got wrong: "In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division..."

Grade: C-
Other than the pick, I actually had a lot right here. I was sniffing out the SD surprise but didn't go with my gut and pick them. I thought Denver was a playoff team, and perhaps if they had gone with Cutler from the start of the season they might have at least won a wildcard. The low grade is based on San Diego's NFL best 14-2 record and the fact that I had them out of the playoffs. Ouch.

WILDCARD

The picks: JACKSONVILLE & CINCINNATI
The winners: NEW YORK & KANSAS CITY

What I got right: "Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego."

What I got wrong: "I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth."

Grade: D
This grade would have been much better had Cincy not missed kicks (a game-tying PAT in week 16 and a game-winning FG in week 17) that cost them an eventual wildcard berth. Even with the missed PAT that could have forced OT two weeks ago, they had a 39-yard FG to beat Pittsburgh, which as they found out later when Denver lost to SF, would have put them in as the last wildcard. I did think KC would be in the mix, but again had no clue the Jets would get it done.

AFC record: 2-4

Overall record: 4-8

Only 4 teams right isn't great. If you just look at division winners (I was 0-4 in the wildcard slots) I was 4-4 or if you look at overall playoff picks (counting that I had both Philly and Dallas in the playoffs, just flip-flopped as the division winner vs. wildcard seeding) my record was 6-6. In both cases .500 is tolerable. So grading on a curve, I give myself an overall C+ grade.

Revised playoff picks later this week.

NFL RECAP - NFC PICKS

Since the NFL regular season is in the books, time to take a look back and grade my preseason picks, starting with the NFC.

NFC EAST

The pick: DALLAS
The winner: PHILLY

What I got right: "The Eagles, coming off a disastrous 6-10 season, have shed T.O. and Andy Reid has turned over the roster. Most pundits are writing them off...but the team looks like they have something to prove and all signs point to them making their statement. The Skins now have plenty of playmakers but they are still hinging their success on the arm of Mark Brunell. Unfortunately for them Brunell is done, which means so are the Redskins. A trendy pick to win the division, despite their dismal preseason, in my book they'll finish last."

What I got wrong: "New York won't make the playoffs...at the end of the day defense will rule and the big D in Dallas will clinch the title."

Grade: B
I didn't get the pick right, but I did get a lot more right than wrong. I wanted to go with my heart and pick Philly to win the division outright, instead I softened and just gave them the wildcard berth. Happy to be wrong in this case.

NFC NORTH

The pick: CHICAGO
The winner: CHICAGO

What I got right: "Everyone's hands down pick, the Bears, have the defense that makes them a lock for the division, but looking beyond that they have some big questions on the other side of the ball, most notably at QB. Is Rex Grossman their long-term answer? While the Bears have some questions the rest of the division has no answers."

What I got wrong: "Of the 3 bottom dwellers Detroit seems to be headed in the right direction..."

Grade: A+
Pretty much all over this one. Green Bay sported a better record than I thought they would, but in the immortal words of Dennis Green, "they were who we thought they were."

NFC SOUTH

The pick: CAROLINA
The winner: NEW ORLEANS

What I got right: "...the wheels officially haven fallen off the Michael Vick bandwagon...The acquisition of Drew Brees, a great signing if he stays healthy, gives them a trio of Bush, Brees and Joe Horn that will make some plays."

What I got wrong: "The Saints will become America's team this year, but the feel good story will stop there as despite the arrival of some big name stars in town the rest of the talent isn't there, especially on defense. This team won't win much, but should be fun to watch and root for. Most have anointed Carolina as the team to beat in the NFC and for good reason."

Grade: F
Like most people, I missed the boat with the Saints. I thought they would stink and they were great. I thought Carolina would be great and they stunk.

NFC WEST

The pick: SEATTLE
The winner: SEATTLE

What I got right: "An injury to Shaun Alexander or Hasselbeck or a slow start and we could see this team unravel...I just think the rest of the division is too weak to let that happen. The chic pick to challenge Seattle is Arizona. The fact that the o-line was down right horrible last year should put a wet blanket on the party."

What I got wrong: "And in SF the only good thing that can be said is that they should be looking at another high draft pick this year, which given their lack of overall talent is a good thing."

Grade: A-
Like the NFC North I was pretty much all over this one. I expected Seattle to struggle, and they did. I though St. Louis might sneak up and challenge and they almost did. I thought people were overrating Arizona and I was right. SF was the miss, as they were better than I expected, hence the A- grade.

WILDCARD

The picks: PHILADELPHIA & TAMPA
The winners: DALLAS & NEW YORK

What I got right: "Depending on how the chips fall the East could boast both wild card berths and 3 playoff teams."

What I got wrong: "And in the other slot look for Tampa Bay to edge out St. Louis and slide into the second berth."

Grade: C- I was sniffing this one out but didn't have the gumption to slot the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the East as the Wildcard winners. I picked Dallas to win the division and Philly to snag the top wildcard, which was close but no cigar as they were flip-flopped. With Tampa I was just dead wrong as they looked lost even before Simms got hurt. That and the fact that I thought the Giants would miss the playoffs determined the C- grade.

NFC record: 2-4

AFC recap tomorrow.

AFC ROUND UP

Need to sneak this in under the wire before tomorrow's games. I give myself an asterisk for not getting it in before Thursday night's game, but unlike the experts, I wasn't going to pick Miami for the playoffs anyway, so their loss didn't sway me. Shorter write-ups as I haven't done as much reading on the AFC as of yet. But here goes:

AFC EAST

As I mentioned above, the popular pick here is for Miami to finally move past New England as the beast in the East. While Miami has a nice squad and should be in the mix for the wild card hunt, as Thursday's night match up against the Steelers showed, Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them. People forget before he went down with the knee injury last year he was stinking it up in Minnesota before finally giving way to Brad Johnson who ignited the team's second half run. To think that a year removed from a major surgery, which will limit his mobility, and on heels of his worse season, that he was some how going to be the team's savior was overly optimistic. New England does have their own problems with Deion Branch's contract dispute. Belichick probably won't cave, which either means Branch will have to come back to the team with his tail between his legs and play under his current contract or hold out the entire season. My guess is the latter. But even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done. Look for an MVP type season from him. The Bills & Jets both have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league. The pick: New England

AFC NORTH

The North, like the NFC East, should be one of the other more competitive divisions this year. Defending division champs Cincy and defending Superbowl champs Pittsburgh both have QB health questions. At this stage Carson Palmer, despite his limited work in preseason, is looking to be the healthier of the two, as Roethlisberger seems snake-bitten since his magical run to the Superbowl last year. But from all indications he should be back as soon as week 2 and in his absence Charlie Batch proved that he is more than a capable back up as he filled in nicely against Miami, running his record to 3-0 when filling in for big Ben in the last 2 years. Willie Parker will have to pick up the slack for the retired Bettis, as when this team excels it is with a blue collar effort where they control the ball on offense and pound you with their defense, lead by Joey Porter. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title. Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh, and may be the most talented team in the league this year, but will they live up to the high expectations? This is the first year since the early 90's where some think the Bengals are Superbowl-worthy. But to make a run deep in the playoffs their defense will have to stop some teams. While winning 45-37 might fly in the regular season, as the Colts failures from the past few years have proven, the defenses are better come the playoffs, so you won't score as many points and you gotta figure out how to stop some people. A brutal schedule should prevent Cincy from repeating as division champs, but they should still slide into the playoffs if they can keep Palmer healthy and their players out of jail (5 players arrested this off season). In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. He's finally got his veteran QB, with Steve McNair replacing Kyle Boller, and Ray Lewis returns from injury to give the defense a boost. But much like in Miami with the high expectations with Culpepper, I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference here either. Had they picked him up 5 years ago before he was repeatedly pounded in Tennessee it might be a different story. But he's a warrior and even a 75% McNair should be better than a 100% Kyle Boller. The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. Whether Charlie Frye is their franchise QB should be the question they are looking to answer this year. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly. The pick: Pittsburgh

AFC SOUTH

Coming off the disappointing loss to the Steelers in the playoffs last year, the Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. It may actually help them this year if they lose one early to deflate the talk of the undefeated season that I think drained them last year before finally losing in week 15. With a win tomorrow against Eli and the Giants they could get off to a fast start, which will make it tough for their only competition in the division, the Jags, to catch them. Jacksonville, buoyed by an easy closing schedule last year, finished 8-1 to close the season and make the playoffs. Their schedule is much tougher this year but they will still get 2 games each to beat up on Houston and Tennessee. If they want a shot at finally unseating the Colts, the week 3 match up in Indy will be a must win. They must keep Leftwich healthy and they are young and not very deep at WR. The defense is on the up swing and this team should be good enough to earn a return berth to the playoffs, again as a wild card. In Tennessee and Houston their hopes hinge on their draft picks. In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. We could still see him in spot duty or if the season goes in the tank, full-time sooner rather than later this year. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold. In Houston they have more weapons, but all the talk is about the one they passed on when they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. For Williams he'll need to put up numbers early to deflect criticism as well as help turn around the defense. This team is also not ready for primetime but could also sneak up on some teams if taken too lightly. The pick: Indianapolis

AFC WEST

The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad. If Plummer returns to his Jake No Mistake form of the regular season last year Cutler will be on the sidelines until next year. But if we see too much of the old Jake the Snake that reared his head in the 2 INT & 2 fumble loss against the Steelers in the AFC championship game last year Shanahan might look to Cutler sooner. Cutler is already a fan favorite, which means Plummer will have to play looking over his shoulder knowing his backup has the looks of a franchise QB in the making. In both KC and San Diego the teams are built around their MVP caliber, initials only, backs of LJ and LT. In KC much of the talk is whether Larry Johnson will reach 2,000 yards this year. I don't see it happening, though he will be a force again this year as he makes his claim to the best RB throne. And in San Diego, Tomlinson is already the weapon now that most think Reggie Bush could eventually become. Where they differ is their QB situations. In KC the Chiefs have veteran Trent Green, while San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth. If not, they will struggle as teams gear up to stop Tomlinson and force Rivers to prove he can beat them. Look for an up and down season that will keep them on the brink but ultimately out of the playoff mix. In KC their defense will again be the question mark. Can they stop people enough to let their potent offense do its thing? Not enough in my book, but Arrowhead will be a tough place to play nevertheless and KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders. Apparently Al Davis is either getting too old that he forgot when he had Art Shell on the sidelines the first time that he couldn't get the job done despite coaching a team with much more talent, or maybe he's simply running out of coaches that want the job that he's desperate enough to give Shell another shot. Either way this team will stink, as Aaron Brooks is not a starting QB in the league. Should be a long year in Oakland. In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division but look for a stronger push from both KC and San Diego than most people expect. The pick: Denver

AFC WILDCARD

As I mentioned above, the wild card race should be a good one. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego. But there are only 2 slots to fill. I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth. If Cincy proves they are the real deal and takes the division we very well could see Pittsburgh in this group fighting to get back to the playoffs (they only made it in last year as the #6 seed). Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The picks: Jacksonville & Cincy

PLAYOFFS

WILDCARD
New England (4) def. Jacksonville (5)
Cincinnati (6) def. Pittsburgh (3)

DIVISIONAL ROUND
New England def. Denver (2)
Indianapolis (1) def. Cincinnati

CONFERENCE CHAMPSIONSHIP
New England def. Indianapolis

AFC CHAMPIONS
Even with the game played in Indy, New England still owns the Colts who will suffer yet another crushing playoff disappointment. The pick is New England

SUPERBOWL
Carolina def. New England

Rematch of Superbowl 38, but the difference will be no Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winner for the Patriots. Carolina will have superior talent on both sides of the ball and Tom Brady's unblemished 3-0 mark in the big game will fall. Look for a big game from Jake Delhomme and Superbowl MVP Steve Smith. The pick for Superbowl XLI is Carolina


Disagree with my picks? Post a comment and let me know your Superbowl match up and winner.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

So in my first post when I started the blog I promised that I would have some sports rants. So far it's been mostly illustration and travel related posts and I know Steve Plimpton is jonesing for me to get some sports talk going, so in honor of his birthday here is my NFL preview & predictions for the upcoming season. The NFC today with the AFC later this week if I get to it.

NFC EAST

Should be the most competitive division from top to bottom. Features 4 teams that all arguably have a legit shot at the playoffs. The Eagles, coming off a disastrous 6-10 season, have shed T.O. and Andy Reid has turned over the roster. The defense looks renewed, McNabb fully healthy and the late summer pick up of Donte' Stallworth from the Saints should give them another playmaker. Most pundits are writing them off but their 6-10 record was somewhat deceiving in that both McNabb and Westbrook missed most of the second half of the season. The team looks like they have something to prove and all signs point to them making their statement. Both the Cowboys and Redskins made high-profile moves on the offensive side of the ball (adding T.O. and Randle El respectively). The Skins now have plenty of playmakers but they are still hinging their success on the arm of Mark Brunell. Unfortunately for them Brunell is done, which means so are the Redskins. A trendy pick to win the division, despite their dismal preseason, in my book they'll finish last. In Dallas the T.O./Bledsoe connection could be prolific or we could see T.O. carve up his third QB, that is if he doesn't start a beef with Parcells first. I'm guessing the T.O. honeymoon is good for one season and they will all play nice. The o-line must keep Bledsoe upright and healthy for T.O. to make a difference. Lost in the shuffle are the defending division champs, the Giants, who don't seem to be getting any pub going into the season. This is probably for good reason, as despite winning the division they got rolled in the playoffs, at home no less. Their success will hinge on whether Eli can improve on his consistency, which I don't see happening. With a defensive unit that should be better this year, but still probably only the 3rd best D in the division, unless Eli elevates his game to his brother's level (that would be the Peyton Manning of the regular season, not the playoffs) New York won't repeat let alone make the playoffs. It will be crowded at the top as the 4 teams beat up on each other and 9-7 could win the division but at the end of the day defense will rule and the big D in Dallas will clinch the title. The pick: Dallas

NFC NORTH

While the NFC East could boast 4 playoff caliber teams the North is lucky to have one. Everyone's hands down pick, the Bears, has the defense that makes them a lock for the division, but looking beyond that they have some big questions on the other side of the ball, most notably at QB. Is Rex Grossman their long-term answer? They say yes but the fact that they brought in Brian Griese to back him up makes me think the coaching staff sure is hedging their bets. Look for a lot of 10-3 wins this year as the offense will struggle but the defense will be one of the best in the league. If the NFL had a minor league the rest of the division would be in danger of being demoted. In Minnesota, gone are Mike Tice, Daunte Culpepper and Koren Robinson. Enter Brad Childress and returning for another turn at QB is the rejuvenated Brad Johnson who led them on a tear after Culpepper went out last year. While the Vikings are doing a good job of cleaning house from a PR stand point following the love boat cruise era, Brad Childress' squad still won't have enough weapons to compete. And the fact that their hopes hang on Brad Johnson, who will be the oldest starting QB in the league this year, gives you a sense of how tenuous their situation is. Speaking of old starting QB's, in Green Bay Brett Favre announced that this is one of the most talented teams he's been on. While there is some young talent, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, Favre has slipped to the point that it won't matter. His arm is still live so he'll rekindle the magic for a few games that will remind us of the Favre of old, but look for another 20+ interception season as he again tries to make too many plays on an offense devoid of playmakers. Favre should be finished in Green Bay after this year. Whether it's his choice or not will be the question. Of the 3 bottom dwellers Detroit seems to be headed in the right direction with the hiring of Martinelli. However, they made some interesting moves bringing in Mike Martz to run the offense and Jon Kitna as his QB. And by interesting I mean suspect. Martz won't want to play second fiddle to Martinelli and Kitna at best is a second fiddle QB. Both spell disaster once the team starts to tank. While the Bears have some questions the rest of the division has no answers. The pick: Chicago

NFC SOUTH

With the wheels officially haven fallen off the Michael Vick bandwagon, the division looks like a two team race between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Most have anointed Carolina as the team to beat in the NFC and for good reason. With a super athletic defense featuring former UNC standout Julius Peppers and the return of Kris Jenkins, and an offense that upgraded when it added Keyshawn Johnson to its already formidable trio of Steve Smith, DeShaun Foster, and Jake Delhomme you can see why people like the Panthers to represent the NFC in the SB this year. Insuring they don't get caught using a 5th string RB in the conference championship game like last year they drafted DeAngelo Williams to spell Foster. In Tampa Bay the Bucs still have a solid veteran defense and emerging stars on offense in both QB Chris Simms & RB Cadillac Williams. The question will be whether both take a step forward or regress. And defensively the question will be whether their 'veteran' players are crafty and smart or start to look old. Given Carolina's tough schedule Tampa will be up there, but they won't sneak up on teams like they did last year, which will cost them a shot at repeating as division champs. In New Orleans all the talk is about Bush, though the focus has shifted from blasting George W. to praising Reggie. The acquisition of Drew Brees, a great signing if he stays healthy, gives them a trio of Bush, Brees and Joe Horn that will make some plays. People will tune in to watch Reggie Bush zig and zag and put on a show and he won't disappoint. The Saints will become America's team this year given the plight of New Orleans' residents post-Katrina, but the feel good story will stop there as despite the arrival of some big name stars in town the rest of the talent isn't there, especially on defense. This team won't win much, but should be fun to watch and root for. The pick: Carolina

NFC WEST

The Seahawks should shake off the Super Bowl hang over that has seen the last several big game losers go on to miss the playoffs the following season. But whether that's an indication of how good Seattle is or how bad the rest of the division is remains to be seen. An injury to Shaun Alexander or Hasselbeck or a slow start and we could see this team unravel, much like Mike Holmgren did with his tirade about the officiating following their SB loss. Lost in the hype of last year's run was that they had one of the easier roads to the Super Bowl in recent history and then getting there failed to beat a Pittsburgh team that played mediocre at best in the big game. The warning signs for a let down are there so it would not surprise if they flopped, I just think the rest of the division is too weak to let that happen. The chic pick to challenge Seattle is Arizona. And with a new stadium, the free agent signing of Edgerrin James, the best group of young receivers, Kurt Warner showing flashes of his former MVP self, and Matt Leinart waiting on the sidelines to boot the future does look bright. Or it could just be the desert heat getting to people's heads. There is some talent, the most they've had in years, but it will be a tall task to ask the offensive line to both pass protect for the lead-footed Warner and also be nimble enough to get out and open some running lanes for James. The fact that the o-line was down right horrible last year should put a wet blanket on the party. If Seattle does fall apart St. Louis could be the beneficiary. Once the greatest show on turf, the Rams still have some talent offensively but unfortunately they will need to perform some circus tricks to cover for their still too-young defense. Getting rid of the Mike Martz drama was a plus and Stephen Jackson is a stud so if Bulger can stay healthy and they can shore up some holes and Seattle finds a few leaks in their ship it could be an interesting race. And in SF the only good thing that can be said is that they should be looking at another high draft pick this year, which given their lack of overall talent is a good thing. The pick: Seattle

NFC WILDCARD

Look for the 2nd place finishers in both the East and South to snag the wildcard berths. Depending on how the chips fall the East could boast both wild card berths and 3 playoff teams. But that scenario is unlikely given the inter-division match ups and the fact that the 4 teams will beat up on each other and their records. A healthy Philadelphia team should receive a modicum of redemption as they survive the slug fest and emerge with a good enough record to win the first wild card berth and a trip back to the playoffs. Only a grueling schedule down the stretch will prevent them from winning the division out right. But they will be the wild card team no one wants to face given their playoff experience. And in the other slot look for Tampa Bay to edge out St. Louis and slide into the second berth. The picks: Philly & Tampa

PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD
Philadelphia (5) def. Dallas (4)
Carolina (3) def. Tampa Bay (6)

DIVISIONAL ROUND
Carolina def. Seattle (2)
Philadelphia def. Chicago (1)

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Carolina def. Philadelphia

NFC CHAMPIONS
On the strength of home field The pick is Carolina.