NFL RECAP - AFC PICKS
As promised, the AFC recap of my preseason picks.
AFC EAST
The pick: NEW ENGLAND
The winner: NEW ENGLAND
What I got right: "While Miami has a nice squad...Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them...even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done."
What I got wrong: "The Jets have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league."
Grade: A-
I got the pick right, predicted that Culpepper would flop and Miami wasn't the chic pick to win the division that everyone seemed to think they were. The Jets, like New Orleans in the NFC, were a big surprise so I won't penalize myself too much for not predicting their wildcard run.
AFC NORTH
The pick: PITTSBURGH
The winner: BALTIMORE
What I got right: "Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh...but will they live up to the high expectations? In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly."
What I got wrong: "I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference...The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title."
Grade: D-
In my defense I did note that I could see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs entirely. Though I somehow stupidly still picked them to win the division. I had Cincy pegged for a wildcard slot so that wasn't too far off (more on that below). But I get the D because I didn't see the 13-3 season from Baltimore. I was thinking more along the lines of 9-7 and missing out on the last wildcard.
AFC SOUTH
The pick: INDIANAPOLIS
The winner: INDIANAPOLIS
What I got right: "The Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. In Houston...all the talk is about why they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. This team is...not ready for primetime."
What I got wrong: "In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold."
Grade: A-
Much like the AFC EAST, I got the pick right, but like the Jets I didn't see the Titans surprise season coming. Granted they didn't get into the playoffs, but 8-8 was a breakout year for them considering the low expectations. Vince Young proved he's a winner at the pro level as well. Unlike in Tennessee, 8-8 in Jax was a disappointment. I thought they would nab a wildcard spot, but they were more unsettled at QB than I expected and they couldn't get it done on the road this year (2-6).
AFC WEST
The pick: DENVER
The winner: SAN DIEGO
What I got right: "The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad...San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth...KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders...this team will stink."
What I got wrong: "In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division..."
Grade: C-
Other than the pick, I actually had a lot right here. I was sniffing out the SD surprise but didn't go with my gut and pick them. I thought Denver was a playoff team, and perhaps if they had gone with Cutler from the start of the season they might have at least won a wildcard. The low grade is based on San Diego's NFL best 14-2 record and the fact that I had them out of the playoffs. Ouch.
WILDCARD
The picks: JACKSONVILLE & CINCINNATI
The winners: NEW YORK & KANSAS CITY
What I got right: "Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego."
What I got wrong: "I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth."
Grade: D
This grade would have been much better had Cincy not missed kicks (a game-tying PAT in week 16 and a game-winning FG in week 17) that cost them an eventual wildcard berth. Even with the missed PAT that could have forced OT two weeks ago, they had a 39-yard FG to beat Pittsburgh, which as they found out later when Denver lost to SF, would have put them in as the last wildcard. I did think KC would be in the mix, but again had no clue the Jets would get it done.
AFC record: 2-4
Overall record: 4-8
Only 4 teams right isn't great. If you just look at division winners (I was 0-4 in the wildcard slots) I was 4-4 or if you look at overall playoff picks (counting that I had both Philly and Dallas in the playoffs, just flip-flopped as the division winner vs. wildcard seeding) my record was 6-6. In both cases .500 is tolerable. So grading on a curve, I give myself an overall C+ grade.
Revised playoff picks later this week.
AFC EAST
The pick: NEW ENGLAND
The winner: NEW ENGLAND
What I got right: "While Miami has a nice squad...Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them...even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done."
What I got wrong: "The Jets have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league."
Grade: A-
I got the pick right, predicted that Culpepper would flop and Miami wasn't the chic pick to win the division that everyone seemed to think they were. The Jets, like New Orleans in the NFC, were a big surprise so I won't penalize myself too much for not predicting their wildcard run.
AFC NORTH
The pick: PITTSBURGH
The winner: BALTIMORE
What I got right: "Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh...but will they live up to the high expectations? In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly."
What I got wrong: "I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference...The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title."
Grade: D-
In my defense I did note that I could see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs entirely. Though I somehow stupidly still picked them to win the division. I had Cincy pegged for a wildcard slot so that wasn't too far off (more on that below). But I get the D because I didn't see the 13-3 season from Baltimore. I was thinking more along the lines of 9-7 and missing out on the last wildcard.
AFC SOUTH
The pick: INDIANAPOLIS
The winner: INDIANAPOLIS
What I got right: "The Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. In Houston...all the talk is about why they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. This team is...not ready for primetime."
What I got wrong: "In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold."
Grade: A-
Much like the AFC EAST, I got the pick right, but like the Jets I didn't see the Titans surprise season coming. Granted they didn't get into the playoffs, but 8-8 was a breakout year for them considering the low expectations. Vince Young proved he's a winner at the pro level as well. Unlike in Tennessee, 8-8 in Jax was a disappointment. I thought they would nab a wildcard spot, but they were more unsettled at QB than I expected and they couldn't get it done on the road this year (2-6).
AFC WEST
The pick: DENVER
The winner: SAN DIEGO
What I got right: "The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad...San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth...KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders...this team will stink."
What I got wrong: "In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division..."
Grade: C-
Other than the pick, I actually had a lot right here. I was sniffing out the SD surprise but didn't go with my gut and pick them. I thought Denver was a playoff team, and perhaps if they had gone with Cutler from the start of the season they might have at least won a wildcard. The low grade is based on San Diego's NFL best 14-2 record and the fact that I had them out of the playoffs. Ouch.
WILDCARD
The picks: JACKSONVILLE & CINCINNATI
The winners: NEW YORK & KANSAS CITY
What I got right: "Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego."
What I got wrong: "I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth."
Grade: D
This grade would have been much better had Cincy not missed kicks (a game-tying PAT in week 16 and a game-winning FG in week 17) that cost them an eventual wildcard berth. Even with the missed PAT that could have forced OT two weeks ago, they had a 39-yard FG to beat Pittsburgh, which as they found out later when Denver lost to SF, would have put them in as the last wildcard. I did think KC would be in the mix, but again had no clue the Jets would get it done.
AFC record: 2-4
Overall record: 4-8
Only 4 teams right isn't great. If you just look at division winners (I was 0-4 in the wildcard slots) I was 4-4 or if you look at overall playoff picks (counting that I had both Philly and Dallas in the playoffs, just flip-flopped as the division winner vs. wildcard seeding) my record was 6-6. In both cases .500 is tolerable. So grading on a curve, I give myself an overall C+ grade.
Revised playoff picks later this week.
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