READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?
So in my first post when I started the blog I promised that I would have some sports rants. So far it's been mostly illustration and travel related posts and I know Steve Plimpton is jonesing for me to get some sports talk going, so in honor of his birthday here is my NFL preview & predictions for the upcoming season. The NFC today with the AFC later this week if I get to it.
NFC EAST
Should be the most competitive division from top to bottom. Features 4 teams that all arguably have a legit shot at the playoffs. The Eagles, coming off a disastrous 6-10 season, have shed T.O. and Andy Reid has turned over the roster. The defense looks renewed, McNabb fully healthy and the late summer pick up of Donte' Stallworth from the Saints should give them another playmaker. Most pundits are writing them off but their 6-10 record was somewhat deceiving in that both McNabb and Westbrook missed most of the second half of the season. The team looks like they have something to prove and all signs point to them making their statement. Both the Cowboys and Redskins made high-profile moves on the offensive side of the ball (adding T.O. and Randle El respectively). The Skins now have plenty of playmakers but they are still hinging their success on the arm of Mark Brunell. Unfortunately for them Brunell is done, which means so are the Redskins. A trendy pick to win the division, despite their dismal preseason, in my book they'll finish last. In Dallas the T.O./Bledsoe connection could be prolific or we could see T.O. carve up his third QB, that is if he doesn't start a beef with Parcells first. I'm guessing the T.O. honeymoon is good for one season and they will all play nice. The o-line must keep Bledsoe upright and healthy for T.O. to make a difference. Lost in the shuffle are the defending division champs, the Giants, who don't seem to be getting any pub going into the season. This is probably for good reason, as despite winning the division they got rolled in the playoffs, at home no less. Their success will hinge on whether Eli can improve on his consistency, which I don't see happening. With a defensive unit that should be better this year, but still probably only the 3rd best D in the division, unless Eli elevates his game to his brother's level (that would be the Peyton Manning of the regular season, not the playoffs) New York won't repeat let alone make the playoffs. It will be crowded at the top as the 4 teams beat up on each other and 9-7 could win the division but at the end of the day defense will rule and the big D in Dallas will clinch the title. The pick: Dallas
NFC NORTH
While the NFC East could boast 4 playoff caliber teams the North is lucky to have one. Everyone's hands down pick, the Bears, has the defense that makes them a lock for the division, but looking beyond that they have some big questions on the other side of the ball, most notably at QB. Is Rex Grossman their long-term answer? They say yes but the fact that they brought in Brian Griese to back him up makes me think the coaching staff sure is hedging their bets. Look for a lot of 10-3 wins this year as the offense will struggle but the defense will be one of the best in the league. If the NFL had a minor league the rest of the division would be in danger of being demoted. In Minnesota, gone are Mike Tice, Daunte Culpepper and Koren Robinson. Enter Brad Childress and returning for another turn at QB is the rejuvenated Brad Johnson who led them on a tear after Culpepper went out last year. While the Vikings are doing a good job of cleaning house from a PR stand point following the love boat cruise era, Brad Childress' squad still won't have enough weapons to compete. And the fact that their hopes hang on Brad Johnson, who will be the oldest starting QB in the league this year, gives you a sense of how tenuous their situation is. Speaking of old starting QB's, in Green Bay Brett Favre announced that this is one of the most talented teams he's been on. While there is some young talent, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, Favre has slipped to the point that it won't matter. His arm is still live so he'll rekindle the magic for a few games that will remind us of the Favre of old, but look for another 20+ interception season as he again tries to make too many plays on an offense devoid of playmakers. Favre should be finished in Green Bay after this year. Whether it's his choice or not will be the question. Of the 3 bottom dwellers Detroit seems to be headed in the right direction with the hiring of Martinelli. However, they made some interesting moves bringing in Mike Martz to run the offense and Jon Kitna as his QB. And by interesting I mean suspect. Martz won't want to play second fiddle to Martinelli and Kitna at best is a second fiddle QB. Both spell disaster once the team starts to tank. While the Bears have some questions the rest of the division has no answers. The pick: Chicago
NFC SOUTH
With the wheels officially haven fallen off the Michael Vick bandwagon, the division looks like a two team race between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Most have anointed Carolina as the team to beat in the NFC and for good reason. With a super athletic defense featuring former UNC standout Julius Peppers and the return of Kris Jenkins, and an offense that upgraded when it added Keyshawn Johnson to its already formidable trio of Steve Smith, DeShaun Foster, and Jake Delhomme you can see why people like the Panthers to represent the NFC in the SB this year. Insuring they don't get caught using a 5th string RB in the conference championship game like last year they drafted DeAngelo Williams to spell Foster. In Tampa Bay the Bucs still have a solid veteran defense and emerging stars on offense in both QB Chris Simms & RB Cadillac Williams. The question will be whether both take a step forward or regress. And defensively the question will be whether their 'veteran' players are crafty and smart or start to look old. Given Carolina's tough schedule Tampa will be up there, but they won't sneak up on teams like they did last year, which will cost them a shot at repeating as division champs. In New Orleans all the talk is about Bush, though the focus has shifted from blasting George W. to praising Reggie. The acquisition of Drew Brees, a great signing if he stays healthy, gives them a trio of Bush, Brees and Joe Horn that will make some plays. People will tune in to watch Reggie Bush zig and zag and put on a show and he won't disappoint. The Saints will become America's team this year given the plight of New Orleans' residents post-Katrina, but the feel good story will stop there as despite the arrival of some big name stars in town the rest of the talent isn't there, especially on defense. This team won't win much, but should be fun to watch and root for. The pick: Carolina
NFC WEST
The Seahawks should shake off the Super Bowl hang over that has seen the last several big game losers go on to miss the playoffs the following season. But whether that's an indication of how good Seattle is or how bad the rest of the division is remains to be seen. An injury to Shaun Alexander or Hasselbeck or a slow start and we could see this team unravel, much like Mike Holmgren did with his tirade about the officiating following their SB loss. Lost in the hype of last year's run was that they had one of the easier roads to the Super Bowl in recent history and then getting there failed to beat a Pittsburgh team that played mediocre at best in the big game. The warning signs for a let down are there so it would not surprise if they flopped, I just think the rest of the division is too weak to let that happen. The chic pick to challenge Seattle is Arizona. And with a new stadium, the free agent signing of Edgerrin James, the best group of young receivers, Kurt Warner showing flashes of his former MVP self, and Matt Leinart waiting on the sidelines to boot the future does look bright. Or it could just be the desert heat getting to people's heads. There is some talent, the most they've had in years, but it will be a tall task to ask the offensive line to both pass protect for the lead-footed Warner and also be nimble enough to get out and open some running lanes for James. The fact that the o-line was down right horrible last year should put a wet blanket on the party. If Seattle does fall apart St. Louis could be the beneficiary. Once the greatest show on turf, the Rams still have some talent offensively but unfortunately they will need to perform some circus tricks to cover for their still too-young defense. Getting rid of the Mike Martz drama was a plus and Stephen Jackson is a stud so if Bulger can stay healthy and they can shore up some holes and Seattle finds a few leaks in their ship it could be an interesting race. And in SF the only good thing that can be said is that they should be looking at another high draft pick this year, which given their lack of overall talent is a good thing. The pick: Seattle
NFC WILDCARD
Look for the 2nd place finishers in both the East and South to snag the wildcard berths. Depending on how the chips fall the East could boast both wild card berths and 3 playoff teams. But that scenario is unlikely given the inter-division match ups and the fact that the 4 teams will beat up on each other and their records. A healthy Philadelphia team should receive a modicum of redemption as they survive the slug fest and emerge with a good enough record to win the first wild card berth and a trip back to the playoffs. Only a grueling schedule down the stretch will prevent them from winning the division out right. But they will be the wild card team no one wants to face given their playoff experience. And in the other slot look for Tampa Bay to edge out St. Louis and slide into the second berth. The picks: Philly & Tampa
PLAYOFFS
WILD CARD
Philadelphia (5) def. Dallas (4)
Carolina (3) def. Tampa Bay (6)
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Carolina def. Seattle (2)
Philadelphia def. Chicago (1)
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Carolina def. Philadelphia
NFC CHAMPIONS
On the strength of home field The pick is Carolina.
NFC EAST
Should be the most competitive division from top to bottom. Features 4 teams that all arguably have a legit shot at the playoffs. The Eagles, coming off a disastrous 6-10 season, have shed T.O. and Andy Reid has turned over the roster. The defense looks renewed, McNabb fully healthy and the late summer pick up of Donte' Stallworth from the Saints should give them another playmaker. Most pundits are writing them off but their 6-10 record was somewhat deceiving in that both McNabb and Westbrook missed most of the second half of the season. The team looks like they have something to prove and all signs point to them making their statement. Both the Cowboys and Redskins made high-profile moves on the offensive side of the ball (adding T.O. and Randle El respectively). The Skins now have plenty of playmakers but they are still hinging their success on the arm of Mark Brunell. Unfortunately for them Brunell is done, which means so are the Redskins. A trendy pick to win the division, despite their dismal preseason, in my book they'll finish last. In Dallas the T.O./Bledsoe connection could be prolific or we could see T.O. carve up his third QB, that is if he doesn't start a beef with Parcells first. I'm guessing the T.O. honeymoon is good for one season and they will all play nice. The o-line must keep Bledsoe upright and healthy for T.O. to make a difference. Lost in the shuffle are the defending division champs, the Giants, who don't seem to be getting any pub going into the season. This is probably for good reason, as despite winning the division they got rolled in the playoffs, at home no less. Their success will hinge on whether Eli can improve on his consistency, which I don't see happening. With a defensive unit that should be better this year, but still probably only the 3rd best D in the division, unless Eli elevates his game to his brother's level (that would be the Peyton Manning of the regular season, not the playoffs) New York won't repeat let alone make the playoffs. It will be crowded at the top as the 4 teams beat up on each other and 9-7 could win the division but at the end of the day defense will rule and the big D in Dallas will clinch the title. The pick: Dallas
NFC NORTH
While the NFC East could boast 4 playoff caliber teams the North is lucky to have one. Everyone's hands down pick, the Bears, has the defense that makes them a lock for the division, but looking beyond that they have some big questions on the other side of the ball, most notably at QB. Is Rex Grossman their long-term answer? They say yes but the fact that they brought in Brian Griese to back him up makes me think the coaching staff sure is hedging their bets. Look for a lot of 10-3 wins this year as the offense will struggle but the defense will be one of the best in the league. If the NFL had a minor league the rest of the division would be in danger of being demoted. In Minnesota, gone are Mike Tice, Daunte Culpepper and Koren Robinson. Enter Brad Childress and returning for another turn at QB is the rejuvenated Brad Johnson who led them on a tear after Culpepper went out last year. While the Vikings are doing a good job of cleaning house from a PR stand point following the love boat cruise era, Brad Childress' squad still won't have enough weapons to compete. And the fact that their hopes hang on Brad Johnson, who will be the oldest starting QB in the league this year, gives you a sense of how tenuous their situation is. Speaking of old starting QB's, in Green Bay Brett Favre announced that this is one of the most talented teams he's been on. While there is some young talent, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, Favre has slipped to the point that it won't matter. His arm is still live so he'll rekindle the magic for a few games that will remind us of the Favre of old, but look for another 20+ interception season as he again tries to make too many plays on an offense devoid of playmakers. Favre should be finished in Green Bay after this year. Whether it's his choice or not will be the question. Of the 3 bottom dwellers Detroit seems to be headed in the right direction with the hiring of Martinelli. However, they made some interesting moves bringing in Mike Martz to run the offense and Jon Kitna as his QB. And by interesting I mean suspect. Martz won't want to play second fiddle to Martinelli and Kitna at best is a second fiddle QB. Both spell disaster once the team starts to tank. While the Bears have some questions the rest of the division has no answers. The pick: Chicago
NFC SOUTH
With the wheels officially haven fallen off the Michael Vick bandwagon, the division looks like a two team race between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Most have anointed Carolina as the team to beat in the NFC and for good reason. With a super athletic defense featuring former UNC standout Julius Peppers and the return of Kris Jenkins, and an offense that upgraded when it added Keyshawn Johnson to its already formidable trio of Steve Smith, DeShaun Foster, and Jake Delhomme you can see why people like the Panthers to represent the NFC in the SB this year. Insuring they don't get caught using a 5th string RB in the conference championship game like last year they drafted DeAngelo Williams to spell Foster. In Tampa Bay the Bucs still have a solid veteran defense and emerging stars on offense in both QB Chris Simms & RB Cadillac Williams. The question will be whether both take a step forward or regress. And defensively the question will be whether their 'veteran' players are crafty and smart or start to look old. Given Carolina's tough schedule Tampa will be up there, but they won't sneak up on teams like they did last year, which will cost them a shot at repeating as division champs. In New Orleans all the talk is about Bush, though the focus has shifted from blasting George W. to praising Reggie. The acquisition of Drew Brees, a great signing if he stays healthy, gives them a trio of Bush, Brees and Joe Horn that will make some plays. People will tune in to watch Reggie Bush zig and zag and put on a show and he won't disappoint. The Saints will become America's team this year given the plight of New Orleans' residents post-Katrina, but the feel good story will stop there as despite the arrival of some big name stars in town the rest of the talent isn't there, especially on defense. This team won't win much, but should be fun to watch and root for. The pick: Carolina
NFC WEST
The Seahawks should shake off the Super Bowl hang over that has seen the last several big game losers go on to miss the playoffs the following season. But whether that's an indication of how good Seattle is or how bad the rest of the division is remains to be seen. An injury to Shaun Alexander or Hasselbeck or a slow start and we could see this team unravel, much like Mike Holmgren did with his tirade about the officiating following their SB loss. Lost in the hype of last year's run was that they had one of the easier roads to the Super Bowl in recent history and then getting there failed to beat a Pittsburgh team that played mediocre at best in the big game. The warning signs for a let down are there so it would not surprise if they flopped, I just think the rest of the division is too weak to let that happen. The chic pick to challenge Seattle is Arizona. And with a new stadium, the free agent signing of Edgerrin James, the best group of young receivers, Kurt Warner showing flashes of his former MVP self, and Matt Leinart waiting on the sidelines to boot the future does look bright. Or it could just be the desert heat getting to people's heads. There is some talent, the most they've had in years, but it will be a tall task to ask the offensive line to both pass protect for the lead-footed Warner and also be nimble enough to get out and open some running lanes for James. The fact that the o-line was down right horrible last year should put a wet blanket on the party. If Seattle does fall apart St. Louis could be the beneficiary. Once the greatest show on turf, the Rams still have some talent offensively but unfortunately they will need to perform some circus tricks to cover for their still too-young defense. Getting rid of the Mike Martz drama was a plus and Stephen Jackson is a stud so if Bulger can stay healthy and they can shore up some holes and Seattle finds a few leaks in their ship it could be an interesting race. And in SF the only good thing that can be said is that they should be looking at another high draft pick this year, which given their lack of overall talent is a good thing. The pick: Seattle
NFC WILDCARD
Look for the 2nd place finishers in both the East and South to snag the wildcard berths. Depending on how the chips fall the East could boast both wild card berths and 3 playoff teams. But that scenario is unlikely given the inter-division match ups and the fact that the 4 teams will beat up on each other and their records. A healthy Philadelphia team should receive a modicum of redemption as they survive the slug fest and emerge with a good enough record to win the first wild card berth and a trip back to the playoffs. Only a grueling schedule down the stretch will prevent them from winning the division out right. But they will be the wild card team no one wants to face given their playoff experience. And in the other slot look for Tampa Bay to edge out St. Louis and slide into the second berth. The picks: Philly & Tampa
PLAYOFFS
WILD CARD
Philadelphia (5) def. Dallas (4)
Carolina (3) def. Tampa Bay (6)
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Carolina def. Seattle (2)
Philadelphia def. Chicago (1)
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Carolina def. Philadelphia
NFC CHAMPIONS
On the strength of home field The pick is Carolina.
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