AFC ROUND UP
Need to sneak this in under the wire before tomorrow's games. I give myself an asterisk for not getting it in before Thursday night's game, but unlike the experts, I wasn't going to pick Miami for the playoffs anyway, so their loss didn't sway me. Shorter write-ups as I haven't done as much reading on the AFC as of yet. But here goes:
AFC EAST
As I mentioned above, the popular pick here is for Miami to finally move past New England as the beast in the East. While Miami has a nice squad and should be in the mix for the wild card hunt, as Thursday's night match up against the Steelers showed, Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them. People forget before he went down with the knee injury last year he was stinking it up in Minnesota before finally giving way to Brad Johnson who ignited the team's second half run. To think that a year removed from a major surgery, which will limit his mobility, and on heels of his worse season, that he was some how going to be the team's savior was overly optimistic. New England does have their own problems with Deion Branch's contract dispute. Belichick probably won't cave, which either means Branch will have to come back to the team with his tail between his legs and play under his current contract or hold out the entire season. My guess is the latter. But even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done. Look for an MVP type season from him. The Bills & Jets both have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league. The pick: New England
AFC NORTH
The North, like the NFC East, should be one of the other more competitive divisions this year. Defending division champs Cincy and defending Superbowl champs Pittsburgh both have QB health questions. At this stage Carson Palmer, despite his limited work in preseason, is looking to be the healthier of the two, as Roethlisberger seems snake-bitten since his magical run to the Superbowl last year. But from all indications he should be back as soon as week 2 and in his absence Charlie Batch proved that he is more than a capable back up as he filled in nicely against Miami, running his record to 3-0 when filling in for big Ben in the last 2 years. Willie Parker will have to pick up the slack for the retired Bettis, as when this team excels it is with a blue collar effort where they control the ball on offense and pound you with their defense, lead by Joey Porter. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title. Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh, and may be the most talented team in the league this year, but will they live up to the high expectations? This is the first year since the early 90's where some think the Bengals are Superbowl-worthy. But to make a run deep in the playoffs their defense will have to stop some teams. While winning 45-37 might fly in the regular season, as the Colts failures from the past few years have proven, the defenses are better come the playoffs, so you won't score as many points and you gotta figure out how to stop some people. A brutal schedule should prevent Cincy from repeating as division champs, but they should still slide into the playoffs if they can keep Palmer healthy and their players out of jail (5 players arrested this off season). In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. He's finally got his veteran QB, with Steve McNair replacing Kyle Boller, and Ray Lewis returns from injury to give the defense a boost. But much like in Miami with the high expectations with Culpepper, I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference here either. Had they picked him up 5 years ago before he was repeatedly pounded in Tennessee it might be a different story. But he's a warrior and even a 75% McNair should be better than a 100% Kyle Boller. The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. Whether Charlie Frye is their franchise QB should be the question they are looking to answer this year. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly. The pick: Pittsburgh
AFC SOUTH
Coming off the disappointing loss to the Steelers in the playoffs last year, the Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. It may actually help them this year if they lose one early to deflate the talk of the undefeated season that I think drained them last year before finally losing in week 15. With a win tomorrow against Eli and the Giants they could get off to a fast start, which will make it tough for their only competition in the division, the Jags, to catch them. Jacksonville, buoyed by an easy closing schedule last year, finished 8-1 to close the season and make the playoffs. Their schedule is much tougher this year but they will still get 2 games each to beat up on Houston and Tennessee. If they want a shot at finally unseating the Colts, the week 3 match up in Indy will be a must win. They must keep Leftwich healthy and they are young and not very deep at WR. The defense is on the up swing and this team should be good enough to earn a return berth to the playoffs, again as a wild card. In Tennessee and Houston their hopes hinge on their draft picks. In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. We could still see him in spot duty or if the season goes in the tank, full-time sooner rather than later this year. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold. In Houston they have more weapons, but all the talk is about the one they passed on when they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. For Williams he'll need to put up numbers early to deflect criticism as well as help turn around the defense. This team is also not ready for primetime but could also sneak up on some teams if taken too lightly. The pick: Indianapolis
AFC WEST
The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad. If Plummer returns to his Jake No Mistake form of the regular season last year Cutler will be on the sidelines until next year. But if we see too much of the old Jake the Snake that reared his head in the 2 INT & 2 fumble loss against the Steelers in the AFC championship game last year Shanahan might look to Cutler sooner. Cutler is already a fan favorite, which means Plummer will have to play looking over his shoulder knowing his backup has the looks of a franchise QB in the making. In both KC and San Diego the teams are built around their MVP caliber, initials only, backs of LJ and LT. In KC much of the talk is whether Larry Johnson will reach 2,000 yards this year. I don't see it happening, though he will be a force again this year as he makes his claim to the best RB throne. And in San Diego, Tomlinson is already the weapon now that most think Reggie Bush could eventually become. Where they differ is their QB situations. In KC the Chiefs have veteran Trent Green, while San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth. If not, they will struggle as teams gear up to stop Tomlinson and force Rivers to prove he can beat them. Look for an up and down season that will keep them on the brink but ultimately out of the playoff mix. In KC their defense will again be the question mark. Can they stop people enough to let their potent offense do its thing? Not enough in my book, but Arrowhead will be a tough place to play nevertheless and KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders. Apparently Al Davis is either getting too old that he forgot when he had Art Shell on the sidelines the first time that he couldn't get the job done despite coaching a team with much more talent, or maybe he's simply running out of coaches that want the job that he's desperate enough to give Shell another shot. Either way this team will stink, as Aaron Brooks is not a starting QB in the league. Should be a long year in Oakland. In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division but look for a stronger push from both KC and San Diego than most people expect. The pick: Denver
AFC WILDCARD
As I mentioned above, the wild card race should be a good one. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego. But there are only 2 slots to fill. I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth. If Cincy proves they are the real deal and takes the division we very well could see Pittsburgh in this group fighting to get back to the playoffs (they only made it in last year as the #6 seed). Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The picks: Jacksonville & Cincy
PLAYOFFS
WILDCARD
New England (4) def. Jacksonville (5)
Cincinnati (6) def. Pittsburgh (3)
DIVISIONAL ROUND
New England def. Denver (2)
Indianapolis (1) def. Cincinnati
CONFERENCE CHAMPSIONSHIP
New England def. Indianapolis
AFC CHAMPIONS
Even with the game played in Indy, New England still owns the Colts who will suffer yet another crushing playoff disappointment. The pick is New England
SUPERBOWL
Carolina def. New England
Rematch of Superbowl 38, but the difference will be no Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winner for the Patriots. Carolina will have superior talent on both sides of the ball and Tom Brady's unblemished 3-0 mark in the big game will fall. Look for a big game from Jake Delhomme and Superbowl MVP Steve Smith. The pick for Superbowl XLI is Carolina
Disagree with my picks? Post a comment and let me know your Superbowl match up and winner.
AFC EAST
As I mentioned above, the popular pick here is for Miami to finally move past New England as the beast in the East. While Miami has a nice squad and should be in the mix for the wild card hunt, as Thursday's night match up against the Steelers showed, Culpepper won't be the difference maker for them. People forget before he went down with the knee injury last year he was stinking it up in Minnesota before finally giving way to Brad Johnson who ignited the team's second half run. To think that a year removed from a major surgery, which will limit his mobility, and on heels of his worse season, that he was some how going to be the team's savior was overly optimistic. New England does have their own problems with Deion Branch's contract dispute. Belichick probably won't cave, which either means Branch will have to come back to the team with his tail between his legs and play under his current contract or hold out the entire season. My guess is the latter. But even without Branch, Tom Brady is good enough to figure out how to get it done. Look for an MVP type season from him. The Bills & Jets both have issues at QB and could very well be in the mix for the worst record in the league. The pick: New England
AFC NORTH
The North, like the NFC East, should be one of the other more competitive divisions this year. Defending division champs Cincy and defending Superbowl champs Pittsburgh both have QB health questions. At this stage Carson Palmer, despite his limited work in preseason, is looking to be the healthier of the two, as Roethlisberger seems snake-bitten since his magical run to the Superbowl last year. But from all indications he should be back as soon as week 2 and in his absence Charlie Batch proved that he is more than a capable back up as he filled in nicely against Miami, running his record to 3-0 when filling in for big Ben in the last 2 years. Willie Parker will have to pick up the slack for the retired Bettis, as when this team excels it is with a blue collar effort where they control the ball on offense and pound you with their defense, lead by Joey Porter. I think Pittsburgh will take the division but an injury here or there and this team very well might not even make the playoffs to defend their title. Cincinnati has more talent than Pittsburgh, and may be the most talented team in the league this year, but will they live up to the high expectations? This is the first year since the early 90's where some think the Bengals are Superbowl-worthy. But to make a run deep in the playoffs their defense will have to stop some teams. While winning 45-37 might fly in the regular season, as the Colts failures from the past few years have proven, the defenses are better come the playoffs, so you won't score as many points and you gotta figure out how to stop some people. A brutal schedule should prevent Cincy from repeating as division champs, but they should still slide into the playoffs if they can keep Palmer healthy and their players out of jail (5 players arrested this off season). In Baltimore this is the make or break year for Brian Billick. He's finally got his veteran QB, with Steve McNair replacing Kyle Boller, and Ray Lewis returns from injury to give the defense a boost. But much like in Miami with the high expectations with Culpepper, I don't think the arrival of McNair will make the difference here either. Had they picked him up 5 years ago before he was repeatedly pounded in Tennessee it might be a different story. But he's a warrior and even a 75% McNair should be better than a 100% Kyle Boller. The Ravens will be in the mix for the wild card but won't get over the hump in the deep AFC. In Cleveland they are still a team looking to assemble some building blocks for the future. Whether Charlie Frye is their franchise QB should be the question they are looking to answer this year. This team won't be good but could catch a few people by surprise if they take them too lightly. The pick: Pittsburgh
AFC SOUTH
Coming off the disappointing loss to the Steelers in the playoffs last year, the Colts should again run up a nice regular season record as Peyton Manning proves he's the best QB at winning in the regular season. Even without Edgerrin James in the backfield they are still loaded offensively. It may actually help them this year if they lose one early to deflate the talk of the undefeated season that I think drained them last year before finally losing in week 15. With a win tomorrow against Eli and the Giants they could get off to a fast start, which will make it tough for their only competition in the division, the Jags, to catch them. Jacksonville, buoyed by an easy closing schedule last year, finished 8-1 to close the season and make the playoffs. Their schedule is much tougher this year but they will still get 2 games each to beat up on Houston and Tennessee. If they want a shot at finally unseating the Colts, the week 3 match up in Indy will be a must win. They must keep Leftwich healthy and they are young and not very deep at WR. The defense is on the up swing and this team should be good enough to earn a return berth to the playoffs, again as a wild card. In Tennessee and Houston their hopes hinge on their draft picks. In Tennessee it could be a couple of years before we see Vince Young be as effective and electric as he was at UT. The fact that Jeff Fisher brought in Kerry Collins, presumably to start, means Vince is nowhere near ready yet. We could still see him in spot duty or if the season goes in the tank, full-time sooner rather than later this year. The Titans are another squad that looks to be in the running for worst record, as they are clearly in rebuilding mold. In Houston they have more weapons, but all the talk is about the one they passed on when they drafted Super Mario instead of Reggie Bush. The two will be linked this year, as people will be watching to see just how big of blunder the Texans made by passing on the Heisman winner. For Williams he'll need to put up numbers early to deflect criticism as well as help turn around the defense. This team is also not ready for primetime but could also sneak up on some teams if taken too lightly. The pick: Indianapolis
AFC WEST
The West in my opinion could be wide open. Clearly Denver is at the head of the class, but question marks about which Bell will be in the backfield and whether Jay Cutler could potentially supplant Jake Plummer as starting QB could disrupt the squad. If Plummer returns to his Jake No Mistake form of the regular season last year Cutler will be on the sidelines until next year. But if we see too much of the old Jake the Snake that reared his head in the 2 INT & 2 fumble loss against the Steelers in the AFC championship game last year Shanahan might look to Cutler sooner. Cutler is already a fan favorite, which means Plummer will have to play looking over his shoulder knowing his backup has the looks of a franchise QB in the making. In both KC and San Diego the teams are built around their MVP caliber, initials only, backs of LJ and LT. In KC much of the talk is whether Larry Johnson will reach 2,000 yards this year. I don't see it happening, though he will be a force again this year as he makes his claim to the best RB throne. And in San Diego, Tomlinson is already the weapon now that most think Reggie Bush could eventually become. Where they differ is their QB situations. In KC the Chiefs have veteran Trent Green, while San Diego rolled the dice and let Drew Brees go to New Orleans so they could make way for the Philip Rivers era. If he's the real deal San Diego could be the sleeper pick to win the division or a wild card berth. If not, they will struggle as teams gear up to stop Tomlinson and force Rivers to prove he can beat them. Look for an up and down season that will keep them on the brink but ultimately out of the playoff mix. In KC their defense will again be the question mark. Can they stop people enough to let their potent offense do its thing? Not enough in my book, but Arrowhead will be a tough place to play nevertheless and KC will be in the wild card mix. The team not in the mix is the Raiders. Apparently Al Davis is either getting too old that he forgot when he had Art Shell on the sidelines the first time that he couldn't get the job done despite coaching a team with much more talent, or maybe he's simply running out of coaches that want the job that he's desperate enough to give Shell another shot. Either way this team will stink, as Aaron Brooks is not a starting QB in the league. Should be a long year in Oakland. In the end Denver is too talented not to win the division but look for a stronger push from both KC and San Diego than most people expect. The pick: Denver
AFC WILDCARD
As I mentioned above, the wild card race should be a good one. The teams I expect to be in the mix are Miami, Cincy, Baltimore, Jax, KC and San Diego. But there are only 2 slots to fill. I think Jacksonville will earn the first and based on their talent alone Cincy will figure out a way to get the second and last berth. If Cincy proves they are the real deal and takes the division we very well could see Pittsburgh in this group fighting to get back to the playoffs (they only made it in last year as the #6 seed). Whichever 2 teams do notch the wild card will have to put up a good fight that could go down to the last weekend of the season. The picks: Jacksonville & Cincy
PLAYOFFS
WILDCARD
New England (4) def. Jacksonville (5)
Cincinnati (6) def. Pittsburgh (3)
DIVISIONAL ROUND
New England def. Denver (2)
Indianapolis (1) def. Cincinnati
CONFERENCE CHAMPSIONSHIP
New England def. Indianapolis
AFC CHAMPIONS
Even with the game played in Indy, New England still owns the Colts who will suffer yet another crushing playoff disappointment. The pick is New England
SUPERBOWL
Carolina def. New England
Rematch of Superbowl 38, but the difference will be no Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winner for the Patriots. Carolina will have superior talent on both sides of the ball and Tom Brady's unblemished 3-0 mark in the big game will fall. Look for a big game from Jake Delhomme and Superbowl MVP Steve Smith. The pick for Superbowl XLI is Carolina
Disagree with my picks? Post a comment and let me know your Superbowl match up and winner.
2 Comments:
after week 1 it's hard to tell, but some trends/teams are looking better and some are much worse. Browns, Panthers, Bucs, Titans, Broncos, Seahawks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers all have issues. All the bad teams are just bad, but I like the Rams, Eagles, Bears, and Cincey with the Ravens, Chargers, Saints and Cards on the cusp. Hope Denver can turn it around, lot's of troubled O-lines out there. You sure on those Panthers or is that the non-Eagles jinx bet??
well, with my 2 superbowl picks struggling in week 1 maybe i've started the new Stringdom jinx, akin to the SI cover jinx. that would be fine if it knocked Carolina out in favor of Philly.
so pony up and make some picks, who are your 2 superbowl teams?
Post a Comment
<< Home